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Sustain Africa did not run a fertilizer support programme in Tanzania but instead co-funded (with Yara) a feasibility study on liming. The study was managed by Prorustica Ltd and was conducted between May and October 2023.
Currently, 14% of Tanzania’s 32.7 million ha of cropland is acidic. Acidity is prominent in the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) regions and the Lake Zone regions. Soil acidity inhibits root growth and nutrient absorption, reducing yields of major cash and staple crops (e.g., maize, rice, beans, and cassava) in Tanzania. Maize, for example, faces a 40% loss in production efficiency in acid soils.[1] The loss in production efficiency means that only 2.2 million mt of maize are produced in acid soil against potential production of 5.5 million mt.
Thestudy documents a pragmatic way to, as a first stage, address extremely low pH levels on productive cropland in three regions of Tanzania; Njombe, Iringa, and Katavi. These were identified using public geospatial resources complemented with Yara’s SoilHive tool. In the first stage of a live project, 50,000 hectares with soil pH of 5.6 and lower would be treated with 100,000 metric tons of lime over two seasons, with follow-up monitoring and impact assessment over the following three years.
Very few liming programs have planned bulk use of lime in quantities that would make a meaningful and significant scaled impact on large numbers of farmers. Stage 1 of the project would target 45 – 50,000 farmers. Learnings from Stage 1 would therefore deliver good information on the challenges of scaling further
Costs and return (economic and social) on investment
The total estimated cost of Stage 1 was calculated to be $14.2 million, with lime procurement constituting 42% of the project’s expenses. An internal rate of return of 36% and net present value of $2.3m were calculated, implying that investment in the project would pay off. To ensure a good early-stage adoption rate, the cost and transportation of lime was assumed to be fully subsidized. A sensitivity analysis showed the economic model was sensitive to application rates, crop yield responses and farmgate prices. The program’s primary beneficiaries are farmers who stand to benefit from increased crop productivity, resulting in higher incomes. Additionally, the initiative is expected to contribute to food security by boosting crop yields. Over four years, a unit farm of 1.2 hectares is projected to generate a total additional revenue of $451.
The study also investigated linking the liming project with Building a Better Tomorrow – Youth Initiative for Agribusiness (BBT-YIA) a Tanzanian Flagship for Agribusiness project for youth and women. Young people would be engaged in coordinating, deploying and monitoring soil liming logistics and impact using digital tools.
The study concluded with a series of recommendations for making the program more conducive to investment from the international donor community.
[1] African Fertilizer and Agribusiness Partnership (AFAP), Lime Scoping Study, 2018